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UFC 258 odds: Latest Vegas lines and betting guide for ‘Usman vs Burns’

Friend becomes foe this Saturday evening (Feb. 13. 2021) when undisputed Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight champion, Kamaru Usman, defends his title against American Top Team teammate, Gilbert Burns, in the main event of UFC 258, which will stream live on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV) from inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Earlier in the evening, Alexa Grasso attempts to spoil the return of top prospect Maycee Barber and Bantamweight strikers Andre Ewell and Chris Gutierrez step up on short notice to fill a main card vacancy.

Valentine’s Day is coming up, and that means it’s time to look for presents. Let’s beef up that budget a bit …

What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 18?

Would you look at that … we’re actually on the board! Though I sorely underestimated Seung Woo Choi and Alexander Volkov, Timur Valiev, Lara Procopio and Alexandre Pantoja all pulled through for a profitable event. Though Cody Stamann’s last-minute exit neutered the winning somewhat, I’ll take what I can get.

UFC 258 Odds For The Undercard:

Bobby Green (-260) vs. Jim Miller +220)
Rodolfo Vieira (-390) vs. Anthony Hernandez (+320)
Belal Muhammad (-400) vs. Dhiego Lima (+325)
Mallory Martin (-155) vs. Polyana Viana (+135)
Ricky Simon (-250) vs. Brian Kelleher (+210)
Gabriel Green (-135) vs. Philip Rowe (+115)
Miranda Maverick (-140) vs. Gillian Robertson (+120)

Thoughts: Not the most fertile field of bargains I’ve ever seen, but there’s value to be found in Bobby Green, Belal Muhammad and Miranda Maverick.

A rangy striker with excellent takedown defense is essentially the ideal archetype to defeat Jim Miller, even with “A-10’s” recent return to form. Fearsome as Miller can be from top position, he’ll have all sorts of trouble actually wrangling Green to the mat and keeping him there, and Green’s boxing looks more effective than Miller’s Muay Thai at this stage. Green’s sprawl-and-brawl efforts should have netted him victory against Thiago Moises and they’ll actually do so against Miller, so bet accordingly.

I will be very surprised if Belal Muhammad doesn’t absolutely run over Dhiego Lima. Lima’s shown some improvement lately, but Muhammad has the tools to exploit the shaky defense and poor wrestling that have cost Lima victory time and time again. “Remember the Name’s” victory over Tim Means proved that he can deal with a height and reach disadvantage, too, severely limiting Lima’s avenues of victory.

In short, go big on Muhammad.

Analyzing a Gillian Robertson fight can often boil down to a Boolean equation. If she can reliably hit takedowns, she wins. If she can’t, she loses. Maverick, a powerhouse wrestler who’s seemingly grown out of her early-career issues with takedown defense, is far more effective on the feet than “The Savage” and figures to dictate any grappling exchanges, making her a reliable investment.

Just to alleviate the FOMO I got from not recommending bets on Julianna Pena and Clay Guida despite successfully calling the upsets, try a bit on Gabe Green as well. Philip Rowe is a severely flawed fighter, and while the same can be said about Green, “Gifted” has the volume and power to ruthlessly exploit Rowe’s defensive lapses.

UFC 258 Odds For The Main Card:

Kamaru Usman (-280) vs. Gilbert Burns (+240)
Alexa Grasso (-140) vs. Maycee Barber (+120)
Kelvin Gastelum (-230) vs. Ian Heinisch (+190)
Chris Gutierrez (-155) vs. Andre Ewell (+125)
Julian Marquez (-165) vs. Maki Pitolo (+145)

Thoughts: As someone who very much enjoys watching Andre Ewell ply his craft, Chris Gutierrez should be favored even more than -155. “Mr. Highlight” has yet to truly dominate a fight in the Octagon. Indeed, Ewell deserved the loss against Jonathan Martinez and only managed split decisions against the battered husk of Renan Barao and an under-sized, under-skilled Irwin Rivera. In other words, Gutierrez is going to tear him to pieces on the feet.

UFC 258 Best Bets:

  • Parlay — Belal Muhammad and Miranda Maverick: Bet $60 to make $68.40
  • Parlay — Bobby Green and Chris Gutierrez: Bet $70 to make $89.60
  • Parlay — Belal Muhammad and Gabe Green: Bet $50 to make $59

UFC 258 is not the most stacked PPV ever, but there are some quality donnybrooks here and there. See you Saturday, Maniacs.


Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 258 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 258: “Usman vs. Burns” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

Initial (Boosted) Investment For 2021: $600
Current Total For 2021: $400.47

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